72% of English universities set to go into deficit – OfS

The higher education regulator in England, the Office for Students (OfS), has issued an analysis that predicts that on current trends 72% of universities will be in deficit by 2025-26.

Susan Lapworth, chief executive of the OfS, warned universities that the stark financial challenges they are facing will increasingly require them to take “bold and transformative” action to counter the impact of reduced international enrolment and falling domestic enrolment.

The warning came as the OfS on Friday published a report into the financial sustainability of universities in England amid a 16% drop in international student enrolment year on year and decreases in UK undergraduate recruitment in medium, smaller and specialist institutions.

The analysis also highlights that the forecasts of larger, especially teaching-intensive, higher education providers “appear to be particularly at odds with the optimism in their previous forecasts”.

Lapworth said: “‘This updated analysis starkly illustrates the financial challenges that continue to face universities. I know that institutions are acutely aware of these risks and are striving to address them.”

She said that a competitive recruitment market for UK students means some universities will lose out and will need to update their plans.

“And all institutions will be alive to the impact of a sharp reduction in visa applications for international students,” she noted.

Lapworth said that the OfS’ annual report in May cautioned about recruitment forecasts that were too optimistic.

“Today’s report demonstrates just how challenging recruitment is for many institutions, with modelling suggesting that many more institutions will report a deficit and low liquidity than had been forecast,” she stated.

Forecasts too optimistic

Key findings of the report include that although acceptances of UK undergraduate students through UCAS appear to have increased slightly, by 1.3% in 2024 compared with the same point in 2023, this is significantly below the sector’s forecast of a 5.8 % increase.

Recruitment of UK undergraduate students has mainly increased in larger, higher-tariff providers. But it appears to have decreased across medium, smaller and specialist institutions and has decreased by nearly a quarter in providers predominantly offering Level 4 and 5 qualifications, the report found.

Indicators suggest that recruitment of international students has decreased significantly overall, with 16% fewer applications for visas in 2024 than in 2023.

The number of international students from certain countries that send significant numbers to study in the UK has decreased significantly. The number of students from some of these countries has decreased by more than 40%.

The OfS modelling indicates that many more providers than forecast must overcome financial challenges in the coming years.

“By 2025-26, based on current trends and not taking into account significant mitigating action, we estimate a net income reduction for the sector of £3,445 million (US$4,36 million) and, without significant mitigating actions, a sector-level deficit of -£1,636 million, with up to 72% of providers being in deficit and 40% having low liquidity.

While these results are spread across all types of providers, larger, especially teaching-intensive, seem the least prepared for the situation.

Responding to the analysis, Vivienne Stern MBE, chief executive of Universities UK, said: “This country needs its universities to be firing on all cylinders if we are going to get the economy growing and improve public services. But this new analysis from the OfS shows the scale of the challenge.

“It is a source of serious concern. Universities in all four nations of the UK are in an extremely difficult position.”

‘Significant risks across sector’

Lapworth said that larger research-intensive and teaching-intensive universities appear to be, in aggregate, in better financial shape than other types of institutions.

“But there are significant risks right across the sector for all types of institutions. And that means students are exposed to risks to the quality of their education,” she warned.

She said the modelling does not conclude that significant numbers of universities will close in the short term.

“But that does not mean that institutions can rely on student recruitment rebounding in the coming years. Many universities have already taken steps to secure their long-term sustainability. For those that have not, the time to do so is now.

“That is increasingly likely to involve bold and transformative action to reshape institutions for the future – while continuing to deliver for the students of today and tomorrow,” she noted.

She urged leaders of institutions that are getting into difficulties to contact OfS at the earliest stage to cooperate on finding solutions.

Tuition fee freeze blamed

Sterne pointed to a decade-long near freeze in tuition fees in England that saw inflation erode the real value of student fees by around a third.

She said the recent government announcement to address this was an extremely welcome step towards fixing the underlying problem. “However, we need to work on a longer-term solution. This will take action by universities themselves and by governments in all nations of the UK.”

Sterne said that universities work hard to plan and manage their finances and across the sector tough decisions have already been made to control costs, but universities will look to go further still to be as efficient and effective as possible.

“As set out in our recent Blueprint, Universities UK has committed to leading a taskforce to unlock the savings which could be delivered by collaborating at a national level,” she added.