The thing to remember is that higher education enrolments are a function of two things: first, the size of the youth population (because, whatever else they may be, these institutions are still overwhelmingly used as a kind of finishing school for learners in their late teens and early twenties), and second, the percentage of that cohort which is choosing and able to attend this kind of education.  These numbers have been rising for most of the past 65 years. Figure 1 shows that change in the numbers of youth aged 20-24 by region (the awkwardly acronym there stands for Canada, Australia, New Zealand, US and UK), while figure 2 shows the change of the global participation rate. Note that for the population figures I am specifically looking at the 56 countries HESA covered in World Higher Education: Institutions, Students and Funding, so the totals are a bit low, but the trends are still basically correct. Data for figure 2 is from the World Bank.

Figure 1: Population Aged 20-24 by Continent, in millions, 1963 to 2013

Well, not so fast. Check out figure 3 which shows that we have hit peak global 20-24 year-olds about ten years ago and are already in a bit of a demographic trough. And while youth numbers will grow a bit later this decade, mostly what is happening is a shift in numbers from Asia, Europe and Latin America to Africa.

Figure 3: Projected Population Aged 20-24 by Continent, in millions, 2008 to 2048

Looking at the likely pattern of flattening growth rates, I came up with an estimate of what participation rates will look like worldwide over the next 30 years or so. Broadly speaking, I am bullish about overall growth rates – we aren’t going to see a doubling every 15 years as we did around the turn of the century, but there is every chance that we will see a doubling over thirty years, mainly because there is still quite a ways to go to hit North-American style participation rates in China, and the two remaining sources of population growth – India and Africa – are currently at the very low end of participation rates. Figure 4 shows where I think higher education participation rates are heading over the next thirty years.

Figure 4: Projected Participation Rates by Continent, 2008 to 2048

Figure 5: Projected Tertiary Enrolments by Continent, in millions, 2008-2048

Of course, the flip side of this growth picture is that the Americas and Europe are basically in for three decades of stagnation, number-wise.  Numbers in Europe and Latin America look to peak in 2038 and decline thereafter; the CANZUKUS group is already in decline (entirely because of the United States), and while it will recover, numbers in 2048 aren’t likely to be more than about 10% higher than they were in 2018.

In these regions, I expect there will be ever-more desperate attempts to try to get non-traditional students into higher education because those systems will have a hard time transitioning to low-growth and the funding implications that entails. But those countries are also, almost certainly also going to have the most intense labour shortages due to demographic change, meaning that attending school will be ever-more expensive because of higher opportunity costs. I am pretty sure this will put a lot of pressure to create ever-shorter post-baccalaureate credentials in these countries.